European and Iranian diplomats meet on Friday to discuss whether they can engage in serious talks in the coming weeks to defuse tensions in the region, including over Tehran’s disputed nuclear programme, before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The meetings in the Swiss city of Geneva, where world powers and Iran achieved a first breakthrough in nuclear talks more than a decade ago before reaching a deal in 2015, are the first since the US election, and aim to see whether any momentum can be built ahead of January 20, when Trump is inaugurated.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Majid Takhteravanchi meets with top diplomats from Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, on Friday, having met the EU’s chief coordinator on Thursday evening.
The level of distrust between both sides was highlighted when the E3 countries on November 21 pushed ahead with a resolution against Iran that tasked the UN atomic watchdog with preparing a “comprehensive” report on Iran’s nuclear activities by the spring of 2025 despite last ditch, but limited Iranian pledges to curb uranium enrichment.
That makes the Geneva meetings more of a brainstorming session focused on their mutual concerns over how Trump will handle the dossier, diplomats said.
European, Israeli and regional diplomats say his planned administration, which includes notable Iran hawks such his Secretary of State pick Marco Rubio, will push a “maximum pressure” policy that would aim to bring Iran to its knees economically just like he attempted during his first presidency.
They also say he may seek a sort of grand bargain involving regional players to resolve the multitude of crises in the region.
The E3, the European parties to the 2015 deal, have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, notably since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine. However, they have always insisted that they wanted to maintain a policy of pressure and dialogue.
Three Iranian officials said Tehran’s primary objective will be finding ways to secure “lifting of sanctions imposed since 2018, after then-President Trump reneged on the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers.
“The establishment has decided to overcome the nuclear impasse… the goal is to use the Geneva meeting to find common ground and if we progress, Washington could join at a later stage,” said one of the three officials.
Good faith
Since 2018, Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme while limiting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ability to monitor it.
“There isn’t going to be an agreement until Trump takes office or any serious talks about the contours of a deal,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
“But the Europeans should press Iran about what aspects of its nuclear programme it’s willing to negotiate on and what security conditions in the region will need to shift for Iran to make nuclear concessions.”
A European official said the primary aim was to try to agree a calendar timeline and framework to embark on good faith talks so that there is a clear commitment from Iranians to begin negotiating something concrete before Trump arrives.
Officials from both sides say the nuclear issue is just one aspect of the talks that will also address Tehran’s military relationship with Russia and its regional role as fears mount that tensions between Iran and arch-rival Israel could ignite an all-out war, already volatile due to conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and tit-for-tat strikes between the two rivals.
On announcing a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the decision was made in part to turn Israel’s focus to Iran.
While Trump’s return to power leaves many questions open, four European diplomats said the E3 countries felt it was vital to engage now because time was running out.
Western powers hope Iran will decide to begin negotiating on new restrictions on its nuclear activities, albeit less far-reaching ones than those from 2015 with a view to having a deal by the summer.
In return, sanctions would begin to be lifted, although the most damaging sanctions to Iran’s economy come from Washington.
With Iran having taken its uranium enrichment far beyond the deal’s limits, it is unclear whether Trump would back negotiations aimed at setting new limits before those in the 2015 deal are lifted on “termination day” in October of next year.
If no new limits are agreed before then, the report could be used to strengthen the case for so-called “snapback”, a process under the 2015 deal where the issue is sent to the UN Security Council and sanctions lifted under the deal can be reimposed.
Iran, which has long said its nuclear programme is peaceful, has warned that it would review its nuclear doctrine if that happened.
